New publication – predicted decline in invasion risk for alien cultivated flora in Southern Africa

08.04.2024
News, Publication

The latest research paper of Ali Omer and colleagues, “Invasion risk of the currently cultivated alien flora in Southern Africa is predicted to decline under climate change,” is now published in Ecography journarl and available online! πŸŒ±πŸ”


In this study, they have used Species Distribution Models to assess the current and future invasion risks of 1,407 alien plants across various biomes and 10 countries in southern Africa. Surprisingly, their findings indicate a general decrease in climatic suitability for these potential invaders in the (sub)tropical study area, contrary to the trends observed in temperate regions.

Figure 2. Current and future potential richness of cultivated alien plants of southern Africa. The maps show the predicted number of species that are expected to encounter suitable climatic conditions per 10ΚΉ grid cell under current climatic conditions (a), moderate future climate change (SSP1-2.6) (b), and severe climate change (SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) (c); and the expected change to current species richness under future climate change scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (d), and SSP5-8.5 (e).