AlienScenarios

Human agency has modified virtually every facet of the biophysical environment with profound implications for the status, distribution and resilience of biodiversity worldwide. Several major drivers of biodiversity loss have been identified with climate change, land-use change and biological invasions being among the most important ones. Changes in climate and land use have received much attention during the last decades, which resulted in readily available scenarios. In contrast, comparable approaches are completely missing for biological invasions despite its importance in driving biodiversity losses, and causing substantial negative impacts on human livelihoods.

AlienScenarios aims to close this gap by, for the first time, evaluating the range of plausible futures of biological invasions for the 21st century at different spatial scales and for a range of taxonomic groups. We will combine the strategic forward-looking methodology of scenario planning with advanced modelling approaches to construct plausible global mid-term (2050) and long-term (2100) futures of biological invasions and their impacts taking into account uncertainties.

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Publications

Seebens H., Essl F., Dawson W., Fuentes N., Moser D., Pergl J., et al. (2015). Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change. Global Change Biology, 21(11), 4128-4140. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13021
Lenzner B., Essl F., & Seebens H. (2018). The Changing Role of Europe in Past and Future Alien Species Displacement. In R. Rozzi, May Jr., R. H., Chapin III, F. S., Massardo, F., Gavin, M. C., Klaver, I. J., et al. (Eds.), From Biocultural Homogenization to Biocultural Conservation (pp. 125-135). Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99513-7_8
Lenzner B., Leclère D., Franklin O., Seebens H., Roura-Pascual N., Obersteiner M., et al. (2019). A framework for global twenty-first century scenarios and models of biological invasions. Bioscience, 69(9), 697-710. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz070
Essl F., Lenzner B., Courchamp F., Dullinger S., Jeschke J. M., Kühn I., et al. (2019). Introducing AlienScenarios: A project to develop scenarios and models of biological invasions for the 21st century. Neobiota, 45(March), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.45.33366
Lenzner B., Latombe G., Capinha C., Bellard C., Courchamp F., Diagne C., et al. (2020). What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment. Frontiers In Ecology And Evolution, 8, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.00280
Essl F., Lenzner B., Bacher S., Bailey S., Capinha C., Daehler C., et al. (2020). Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert‐based assessment. Global Change Biology, 26(9), 4880-4893. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15199
Seebens H., Bacher S., Blackburn T. M., Capinha C., Dawson W., Dullinger S., et al. (2021). Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050. Global Change Biology, 27(5), 970-982. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15333
Roura-Pascual N., Leung B., Rabitsch W., Rutting L., Vervoort J., Bacher S., et al. (2021). Alternative futures for global biological invasions. Sustainability Science, 16(5), 1637-1650. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00963-6
Latombe G., Seebens H., Lenzner B., Courchamp F., Dullinger S., Golivets M., et al. (2022). Capacity of countries to reduce biological invasions. Sustainability Science, 2021.02.04.429788. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-022-01166-3
Pérez-Granados C., Lenzner B., Golivets M., Saul W. -C., Jeschke J. M., Essl F., et al. (2022). European scenarios for future biological invasions. Biorxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.13.507777
Roura-Pascual N., Saul W. -C., Pérez-Granados C., Rutting L., Peterson G. D., Latombe G., et al. (2022). A scenario-guided strategy for the future management of biological invasions. Biorxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.09.07.506838
Pérez‐Granados C., Lenzner B., Golivets M., Saul W. -christian, Jeschke J. M., Essl F., et al. (2023). European scenarios for future biological invasions. People And Nature, (October), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10567
Golivets M., Knapp S., Essl F., Lenzner B., Latombe G., Leung B., & Kühn I. (2024). Future changes in key plant traits across Central Europe vary with biogeographical status, woodiness, and habitat type. Science Of The Total Environment, 907(August 2023), 167954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167954